22 Startling Predictions

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21 Startling predictions

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"I don’t set trends. I just find out what they are and exploit them."- Dick Clark

As I look ahead to the rest of 2008, I can see one major trend. And it’s one that will have repercussions for the economy as a whole. That trend involves baby boomers. Boomers have been a major factor in consumer spending, saving, and investing for 50 years. So it’s likely they will continue to be. In fact, they will probably affect the economy for the rest of their lives - for the next 20 to 25 years.

If you accept this premise, the following 22 predictions may make sense to you:

1. Baby boomers will get poorer this year. They lost half of their retirement nest egg when the tech bubble exploded. And they have been losing much of the rest of it as property prices come down. This will continue in 2008. Credit will be harder to come by. Banks will get tougher with loans.

2. Scared by their shrinking wealth, some boomers will make one final, frenzied attempt to "get back" the wealth they never really had. They’ll scrape together their last rands. They’ll borrow money. And they’ll use it to make high-risk, leveraged financial investments in such things as currencies and commodities. The greediest sectors of the financial services industry will benefit, temporarily, from this short-term trend. Later, they will suffer from it as their customers disappear.

3. As 2008 ends, boomers’ speculative investments will fail to rescue them. So they will grudgingly accept the fact that they will never be as wealthy as they wanted to be. They will feel defeated, and they won’t have the energy to start anew. As a result, they will drastically decrease their discretionary spending.

4. Following the boomers’ lead, consumer spending in general will slow down. Growth will slow. Businesses will continue to go bankrupt at record rates.

5. With decreasing revenues on one side and increasing fixed costs (related to property) on the other, retail will be especially hard hit. Many, if not most, medium-sized retail businesses that exist today will be defunct within 10 years.

6. On the bright side, Internet spending will continue to grow. But the growth will be much slower than in the past. Lots of opportunities will allow people to make money by marketing products and services on the Internet. But many of those who are in business today will go bankrupt as the market becomes more competitive.

7. Multi-million rand homes will tumble in value, even below current prices. Many will be left vacant. It will take at least seven years for many of the properties that have been built in the past two years to be occupied. Investors in these properties will be wiped out.

8. More than 80% of the existing property development industry will go bankrupt.

9. Following real estate development will be the larger part of the banking and financial services industry. Thousands of young investment bankers and hedge fund managers will be out of work. This could happen as early as the middle of next year.

10. As the U.S. and S.A. economy slides into a protracted recession, baby boomers will recognise that they are poorer than their parents were when their parents were in their early sixties. Without the appreciation of a house to cash in on, they will give up their long-held dreams of retiring comfortably at 65.

11. Luxury will be uncool. Understated elegance will be in.

12. The campaign against conspicuous consumption will accelerate. Twelve-cylinder cars will be ridiculed and possibly outlawed entirely.

13. Hippie values will return. Peace and love and blue jeans will prevail… simply because baby boomers won’t be able to afford to indulge themselves materialistically as they have been doing for 40 years.

14. Technology and the baby boomers’ shrinking wealth will favour products that are simple and small.

15. The wristwatch will begin a 20-year disappearing act.

16. Yoga, meditation, and pilates will continue to increase in popularity. Aerobics, weight training and kickboxing will diminish.

17. Yachts, luxury automobiles, and Learjets will stand in warehouses, unused.

18. Technical jobs will continue to be outsourced overseas. And in the U.S., boomers will start to agree to work phones and read X-rays for minimum wage.

19. The information-publishing industry - particularly the specialised information-publishing industry - will continue to grow, outpacing the general economy. Entrepreneurs who understand the difference between information, advice and opinion will make fortunes.

20. Direct marketing will continue to grow as general advertising declines. Businesses that are unskilled at direct marketing will have a tough time staying competitive. Many will fail.

21. Boomers will "decide" to continue working during their retirement years. But many of them - lacking the skills to contribute to the Internet, information-publishing, or direct-marketing industries - will go unemployed. Those are my predictions for the rest of the year and beyond. But what good are such predictions? Can they make you any money? I don’t know. I do know a few things about investing in trends, though. Lessons I’ve learned from a lifetime of starting all sorts of businesses. For example: You can make the biggest money on a new trend that emerges quickly and grows strongly… if you get in early. It’s difficult to predict new trends with precision. You can sometimes see that a certain change is inevitable, but it is often difficult to know when it will happen. Usually, it happens later than you expect.

For any given day or week or month, chances are good - some studies say 70% - that things will remain the same the following day or week or month. That’s why it doesn’t usually pay to play trends in the stock market. Unless, that is, you know what you’re doing or are getting good advice from someone who does. The sensible way to invest in trends is to buy into good businesses that provide neutral or positive cash flow. That gives you a Plan B. You can sit out short-term fluctuations while you wait for the long-term trend to take hold. If I am right about the future for baby boomers, it won’t be the end of the financial world. People who are smart enough to put their time and money into developing industries (such as direct-marketing, information-publishing, and Internet-related businesses) will do well.

Just Three Steps...

Morning,

I came across this article, which really simplifies the concept of business. Yes, we all know its not that easy, and there is a lot of work involved to make it successful, BUT this is a start. And maybe, if you've been wanting to start your own business, this will be the encouragement you need to get there (if that is the right decision for you to make...)

Anyway, happy reading.

Regards,

M.

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You’re just 3 steps away from your new business - by Paul Lawrence

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"Man is always more than he can know of himself; consequently, his accomplishments, time and again, will come as a surprise to him."- Golo Mann

I’m willing to bet that one goal you have for this year is to become wealthier than you are right now. If you’ve been paying attention to Michael Masterson’s advice, you know that means starting your own business - which, says Michael, is " one of the best (or possibly the best) ways of growing wealthy."

Well, what’s stopping you? Starting your own business may sound like an overwhelming task - but, like every worthwhile goal, it can be broken down into manageable parts. In fact, I’m going to show you how to do it in three simple steps. The important thing is to take action. Instead of just dreaming about starting your own business, do it! Don’t worry about the details, just come up with a sensible overall plan and get your business off the ground. You can go back and fine-tune it later. As Michael says, "Ready, Fire, Aim." I have helped start dozens of small businesses. And all of them were the result of combining Michael’s Ready, Fire, Aim philosophy with my own three-step approach.

Here’s how it works…

Step 1. Identify something that people want and will pay for. One of the most common stumbling blocks for aspiring entrepreneurs is deciding on a product or service to market. The primary consideration is to choose something that people will buy. And the easiest way to do that is to go with something that other people are already selling successfully. Ideally, that will be something you love and/or know a lot about. For instance, if you’re an accountant, you could create and sell programmes about how people can prepare their taxes, how they can make a household budget, and how they can find hidden tax deductions. Or, if you’ve always loved animals, you could sell pet toys, treats, and accessories. If you have trouble coming up with a likely product or service based on your own interests and/or expertise, choose a relatively simple service that’s in high demand. A house cleaning service, for example, or bookkeeping, lawn mowing, resume writing, or house painting. The possibilities are almost endless.

Step 2. Find a way to supply it. This step just requires a bit of business common sense. If you’re selling a service, you would either supply the service yourself or hire someone else to do it (or help you). If, for example, you’ve decided to go into the moving business, you don’t have to be capable of handling furniture yourself. Simply hire a few people who can do heavy lifting and either buy or rent a truck. If you’re selling a product, you would ideally seek out suppliers that can provide you with merchandise at a low enough price for you to be able to make a profit. But that usually means buying in volume - which may not work for you when you’re just starting out. Let’s say you’d like to sell bookshelves. In this case, it might make more sense for you to get your business going by buying the lumber and building the shelves yourself (or hiring someone to build them for you).

Step 3. Sell it to the people who want it. I’m a big believer in direct marketing for small start-up businesses. It’s a relatively inexpensive way to get your marketing message to prospective customers via e-mail, regular mail, ads in local papers, or even flyers distributed door to door.

Let’s say you want to start a housekeeping service. You’d identify a few affluent neighbourhoods where the homeowners could, presumably, afford maids. Then you’d target them with either flyers or small mailers. Or suppose you want to start a business where you take people on charter fishing boat trips. You’ll be marketing primarily to tourists, so you’d work on getting yourself listed in local tourist guides and maybe advertise on a few bus benches in your city’s hotel district. If you decide to go after locals too, you could contact local fishing clubs and see if you can rent their membership lists to do a mailing. You might also make a deal with local bait shops to distribute your flyers. Obviously, starting and running a successful business requires time, energy, and effort. Still, when you break down the process, it’s just three simple steps:

1. Identify something that people want and will pay for.

2. Find a way to supply it.

3. Sell it to the people who want it.

If you really want to run your own business, it’s time to take action. Just think - by this time next year, you could be living your dream. But if you’re the kind of person who finds it hard to come up with a great idea – look below (this newsletter will do the hard work for you).

Everything must go!

EVERYTHING MUST GO!
Up to 50% off selected items until the end of March 2008! EVERYTHING MUST GO!!! Log onto www.easterngifts.co.za to view!
Regards,
M.

A Teenager's View of Heaven

17-year-old Brian Moore had only a short time to write something for a class. The subject was what Heaven was like. "I wowed 'em," he later told his father, Bruce. "It's a killer. It's the bomb. It's the best thing I ever wrote…" It also was the last. Brian Moore died May 27 1997, the day after Memorial Day. He was driving home from a friend's house when his car went off Bulen-Pierce Road in Pickaway County and struck a utility pole. He emerged from the wreck unharmed but stepped on a downed power line and was electrocuted.
The Moores framed a copy of Brian's essay and hung it among the family portraits in the living room. "I think God used him to make a point. I think we were meant to find it and make something out of it," Mrs. Moore said of the essay. She and her husband want to share their son's vision of life after death. "I'm happy for Brian. I know he's in heaven. I know I'll see him."
Brian's Essay: The Room...
In that place between wakefulness and dreams, I found myself in the room. There were no distinguishing features except for the one wall covered with small index card files. They were like the ones in libraries that list titles by author or subject in alphabetical order. But these files, which stretched from floor to ceiling and seemingly endless in either direction, had very different headings. As I drew near the wall of files, the first to catch my attention was one that read "Girls I have liked." I opened it and began flipping through the cards. I quickly shut it, shocked to realize that I recognized the names written on each one. And then without being told, I knew exactly where I was.
This lifeless room with its small files was a crude catalogue system for my life. Here were written the actions of my every moment, big and small, in a detail my memory couldn't match. A sense of wonder and curiosity, coupled with horror, stirred within me as I began randomly opening files and exploring their content. Some brought joy and sweet memories; others a sense of shame and regret so intense that I would look over my shoulder to see if anyone was watching.
A file named "Friends" was next to one marked "Friends I have betrayed." The titles ranged from the mundane to the outright weird "Books I Have Read," "Lies I Have Told," "Comfort I have Given," "Jokes I Have Laughed at." Some were almost hilarious in their exactness: "Things I've yelled at my brothers." Others I couldn't laugh at: "Things I Have Done in My Anger", "Things I Have Muttered Under My Breath at My Parents." I never ceased to be surprised by the contents.
Often there were many more cards than I expected. Sometimes fewer than I hoped. I was overwhelmed by the sheer volume of the life I had lived. Could it be possible that I had the time in my years to fill each of these thousands or even millions of cards? But each card confirmed this truth. Each was written in my own handwriting. Each signed with my signature. When I pulled out the file marked "TV Shows I have watched", I realized the files grew to contain their contents. The cards were packed tightly and yet after two or three yards, I hadn't found the end of the file. I shut it, shamed, not so much by the quality of shows but more by the vast time I knew that file represented.
When I came to a file marked "Lustful Thoughts," I felt a chill run through my body. I pulled the file out only an inch, not willing to test its size and drew out a card. I shuddered at its detailed content. I felt sick to think that such a moment had been recorded. An almost animal rage broke on me. One thought dominated my mind: No one must ever see these cards! No one must ever see this room! I have to destroy them!" In insane frenzy I yanked the file out. Its size didn't matter now. I had to empty it and burn the cards. But as I took it at one end and began pounding it on the floor, I could not dislodge a single card. I became desperate and pulled out a card, only to find it as strong as steel when I tried to tear it. Defeated and utterly helpless, I returned the file to its slot. Leaning my forehead against the wall, I let out a long, self-pitying sigh.
And then I saw it. The title bore "People I Have Shared the Gospel With." The handle was brighter than those around it, newer, almost unused. I pulled on its handle and a small box not more than three inches long fell into my hands. I could count the cards it contained on one hand. And then the tears came. I began to weep. Sobs so deep that they hurt. They started in my stomach and shook through me. I fell on my knees and cried. I cried out of shame, from the overwhelming shame of it all. The rows of file shelves swirled in my tear-filled eyes. No one must ever, ever know of this room. I must lock it up and hide the key. But then as I pushed away the tears, I saw Him.
No, please not Him. Not here. Oh, anyone but Jesus. I watched helplessly as He began to open the files and read the cards. I couldn't bear to watch His response. And in the moments I could bring myself to look at His face, I saw a sorrow deeper than my own. He seemed to intuitively go to the worst boxes. Why did He have to read every one? Finally He turned and looked at me from across the room. He looked at me with pity in His eyes. But this was a pity that didn't anger me. I dropped my head, covered my face with my hands and began to cry again. He walked over and put His arm around me. He could have said so many things. But He didn't say a word. He just cried with me. Then He got up and walked back to the wall of files. Starting at one end of the room, He took out a file and, one by one, began to sign His name over mine on each card. "No!" I shouted rushing to Him. All I could find to say was "No, no," as I pulled the card from Him. His name shouldn't be on these cards. But there it was, written in red so rich, so dark, so alive. The name of Jesus covered mine. It was written with His blood. He gently took the card back. He smiled a sad smile and began to sign the cards. I don't think I'll ever understand how He did it so quickly, but the next instant it seemed I heard Him close the last file and walk back to my side.
He placed His hand on my shoulder and said, "It is finished." I stood up, and He led me out of the room. There was no lock on its door. There were still cards to be written.

Joke for the Day

A man was walking on the beach one day and he found a bottle half buried in the sand. He decided to open it. Inside was a genie. The genie said,” I will grant you three wishes and three wishes only." The man thought about his first wish and decided, “I think I want 1 million dollars transferred to a Swiss bank account. POOF! Next he wished for a Ferrari red in color. POOF! There was the car sitting in front of him. He asked for his final wish, " I wish I was irresistible to women." POOF! He turned into a box of chocolates.

Should I stay or Should I go?

Subject: An interesting article

Should I stay or should I go?

By John Demartini

The general feeling among South Africans is doom and gloom based on various facts and perceptions. South Africa is the crime, murder and Aids capital of the world. It used to have the best roads and now they are full of potholes.

There seem to be only fraudsters at the top of the police force. The country's leadership under Mbeki is rudderless. The head of the ruling party is up on corruption charges.

Now a basic infrastructural commodity such as electricity is being rationed. This will directly influence future foreign investment, which in turn will increase unemployment, poverty and crime. Mines are periodically forced to shut down, losing billions, which will adversely affect the economy.

People who seek ease get continued difficulty

This also brings us to the unthinkable - we could lose the 2010 World Cup. And the even more unthinkable: are we slowly going the same way as Zimbabwe?

A poll taken by Carte Blanche recently confirmed that the majority of affluent South Africans had absolutely no faith in Eskom sorting out the power problems. There seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel... literally. The question on everybody's lips is: Should I stay or should I go?

Human behavioural specialist Dr John Demartini has some thoughts on the subject.

His teachings take him all over the world, enabling him to experience a vast array of living standards. Originally from the US, his work brings him to South Africa for extended periods about four times a year.

The question is not should I stay or should I go?

It is wiser to ask: What awaits me if I leave? Unquestionably there are challenges in South Africa, but you are living in a fantasy if you think there won't be a new set of challenges and drawbacks when you move to another country. People who run away from a challenge get more challenges to face and manage. People who seek ease get continued difficulty. It's the way it is - the integration of complementary opposites.

You have to get into proactive mode

The challenges in this country, like the power shortage, will also birth more opportunities. New enterprises will blossom as a result. Out of crisis always emerge the greatest leaders.
You may not realise it, but your challenges are unifying people in SA and making them think more creatively. SA is a seed of opportunity for entrepreneurs who could contribute to transformation.

Anyway, why run from your heritage? A situation like Eskom is a temporary glitch and it is unwise to let it interfere with your long-term visions and goals.

Remember, the greatest tension in the slingshot shoots the highest rock.

There is never a crisis without a blessing. So let's look at the blessings in the power situation. This may be a lesson to government to think beyond 10 years and accommodate a 50-year vision so subsequent generations benefit from these lessons.

On a day-to-day level, no power to your television is probably making families communicate more. Gold mines might have temporarily shut down, but the gold price shot up.

If you have made up your mind to go, that's fine, but if you are staying, bitching without taking actions towards solutions is not going to help. Don't let naysayers interfere with your dreams and opportunities.

However, staying means you cannot afford the luxury of sitting back. You have to get into proactive mode. Yes, it may seem insurmountable, but if every individual helps at a grass-roots level by figuring out how to empower the people around them, it will make a massive collective difference.

Nelson Mandela is the perfect example of just one person who stood up and changed things. You know the famous words of John F Kennedy: "It's not what your country can do for you - it's what you can do for your country."

Long-term visionaries know to stay the course. They don't focus on how things aren't being done; they always look at what is being done and what can be done on an individual basis. They are always solution-oriented and not problem-focused.

You are not at the mercy of your government; it's the other way round. They are there because the majority of people voted for them. If you don't like their vision, rally around and change it. In the meantime, don't wait on them to sort out the problems, make it a community project.

Contrary to the current thoughts of disillusionment and uncertainty, which are largely driven by emotion, remember foreigners believe in South Africa.

Look at Oprah Winfrey, who has built a school here, and Richard Branson, who has invested every aspect of his brand here, including buying a game reserve. Temporary setbacks won't stop these people.

Look at the history of social dynamics. Nations have risen and fallen for centuries. They have taken one step back and two steps forwards.

South Africa has made massive strides in the past few years. When I first got here South Africa was nothing like I envisioned. I was very impressed. And in the three years I have been regularly coming here, I have seen great progress in the landscaping, buildings and living conditions.

Would I invest in this country? I already have. I have ploughed in copious amounts of time and energy and this is the only place I have established an office outside of the US. My worldwide branding is currently being created here and my working visits are getting more frequent and prolonged.

I am even looking at possibly investing in a lodge in a game reserve. I have also experienced three robberies from my hotel room, but that isn't going to curb my long-term goals in South Africa.

Crime is an issue that needs to be tackled in a much larger forum than this. However, I will go as far as saying that when there is a high polarity between the haves and the have-nots, there will always be tension between the two camps and crime is the byproduct.

Closing the gap is the wisest strategy and this cannot be done through entitlement. Entitled people generally don't feel purposeful and are therefore not creating their own lives.

Education and mentoring, which translates into self-worth and true empowerment, is the only solution. I also believe that newspapers could play a massive role and be the hero in changing perceptions as they reach the masses. Their actions could even transform the government.
If you decide to stay and fight for your birthplace then you need to go from victim to victor mentality. Make the South African mantra: "I will stay and help build a great nation." And remember, if you become grateful for what you have, you will get more to be grateful for.

# Visit drdemartini.co.za

Interesting, hey?

Regards,
M.

Secrets Everyone Should Know

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Secrets everyone, starting out, should know - by Michael Masterson
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"So, what's it like in the real world? Well, the food is better, but beyond that, I don't recommend it."
- Bill Watterson

Many of my friends believe that kids today have a more challenging life than we did when we were young.

"It's more dangerous out there."
"Good jobs are harder to find and harder still to keep."
"It's just so much tougher for kids these days."

That's the view of Tamara Draut, who works for an agency that promotes government action and whose book, Strapped. is subtitled "Why 20- and 30- Somethings Can't Get Ahead." But are things really tougher for graduates today?

I'm doubtful. When I graduated from university, I was R50,000 in debt. So was my friend Eric. Peter wasn't in debt, but he was about to be married so he had different financial concerns. Back then, unemployment was higher than it is now. Bad jobs were scarce. Good jobs were non-existent.

Peter, Eric, and I were doing everything we could to make money, but it was tough. We knew we couldn't save our way out of our situation. We knew we had to earn more money. So we started a little business. An above ground-pool installation business. We had no connections and no capital, but we had spent the previous summer building pools, so we did have some experience.

We went to a local pool distributor and offered to put up his display pools for free if he'd recommend us to his customers. He let us try one pool, and it took us eight hours - three times longer than it should have - to finish it. But it was built well and he gave us a recommendation.

One recommendation led to another. And before we knew it, we were working 16 hours a day, seven days a week, running four crews and making R2,100 apiece a day. We did that for 10 weeks straight. At the end of that summer, Eric and I had fully paid off our school loans, and Peter was able to put a down payment on a starter home for himself and his new bride.

I was able to not just get rid of my debt, but buy myself a car and pay to have my parents' house repainted.

That gave me a taste for entrepreneurship that I've never tired of.

I tried to write down everything I know about starting out and becoming successful - as an entrepreneur and as an employee. Here's some of what I noted:

* Don't fret about your problems. And don't wait for the government to solve them. Create a personal plan for success and follow it.

* If you can get a great job (and it's not impossible), then get to work earlier than everybody else and work harder and longer than everybody else, and do everything you can to work smarter than everybody else.

* If you can't get a great job, start your own business. Service-oriented businesses, though they have drawbacks, are the easiest and cheapest to launch. The good habits you (hopefully) developed in college will serve you well in this competitive, primarily blue-collar, environment.

* Get an apartment with two or three roommates. And, believe it or not, you can live very well for practically nothing. Good food, wine, and entertainment don't have to be expensive.

* Save much more than the experts tell you. Pay the government first (taxes can't be avoided), your loans next, and then put 15% of your income into an investment account. If you don't make enough money to do that, get another job. Work 16 hours a day if necessary.

* If you begin to feel sorry for yourself, volunteer to work for an institution that treats people who have real problems - like cancer, AIDS, ALS, etc.

* Give yourself a little time once a week to slow down and smell the roses. Then get back to work.
This is probably not the kind of advice that Tamara Draut would like to hear, because it doesn't do much to solve the "starting-out problem" on a global level. But I'd like to think it can help individual people - graduates and young people - become wealthy despite the challenges posed by our shaky economy.